This week, the price of SOL showed significant fluctuations. It opened at $147.2 and dropped by 8% within 24 hours, hitting a low of $135.5. Subsequently, it rebounded, supported by the total value locked (TVL) on the Solana chain exceeding $4.3 billion. CoinMarketCap data shows that the 72-hour trading volume reached 7.8 billion US dollars, but the price fluctuation was as high as 0.5%, reflecting market divergence. For instance, on Wednesday, the US CPI inflation rate of 3.5% exceeded expectations, triggering a sell-off in the crypto market. SOL saw an outflow of 120 million US dollars in a single hour, causing its price to deviate from the 20-day moving average support level by 12%. Technical indicators show that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plummeted from the overbought zone of 70 to 42, the short position ratio has risen to 58%, and the open interest of derivatives has increased by 17%, highlighting the rising risk of leveraged trading.
Macro events have directly impacted the price trend of SOL: On Thursday, the disposal party of FTX’s bankrupt assets announced the sale of 750,000 SOL, worth approximately 103 million US dollars, causing panic on the supply side of the market. On-chain analytics firm Santiment confirmed that the SOL stock on the exchange soared by 30% within 24 hours, and selling pressure led to a 5.8% plunge in the price within two hours. Meanwhile, the progress of the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase in the United States has raised the regulatory risk premium by 15%, and investors have turned to safe-haven assets. Historically, in similar selling events in 2023, the average price slippage caused by the liquidation of each million US dollars of SOL reached 0.8%. However, this time, Market Depth data shows that sell orders above 500,000 US dollars will cause the price to deviate from the median by 2.1%, increasing the probability of a liquidity crisis.
On-chain activities and ecosystem development form a counterbalancing force: The Solana network maintained an average daily transaction volume of 41 million this week, an increase of 12% compared to last week. Among them, the NFT platform Tensor’s new series minting contributed 540,000 interactions on a single day. DeFiLlama statistics show that the weekly trading volume of the decentralized exchange Orca has exceeded 1.8 billion US dollars, pushing the burning rate of SOL as a Gas token to 8.2 per minute. The theoretical deflationary pressure can reduce the annualized inflation rate by 0.3%. However, the delay in the development progress has become a negative factor – the upgrade of the core protocol Firedancer has been delayed by two weeks, causing the network’s peak processing capacity to be stuck at 65,000 TPS, failing to reach the target of millions. Some institutions have lowered the technical score by 15%, and the pressure has been passed on to the short-term valuation model of SOL price.
Market sentiment and capital flow reveal a structured contradiction: the fear-greed index has dropped to 31 (the extreme fear range), but the futures funding rate remains at a positive premium of 0.01%, suggesting that bulls have not yet fully withdrawn. On-chain whale monitoring found that an anonymous address purchased 230,000 SOL (about 32 million US dollars) in batches on Friday, instantly pushing the price up by 3.2% from 140.3 US dollars. However, the proportion of retail investors holding the coins dropped to 37%, reflecting the risk of concentrated shares. The historical volatility (HV) rose to 85%, exceeding the three-month average by 60%. The put/call ratio in the options market reached 0.9, indicating that the short-term price range may fluctuate widely between $125 and $155.
